Nate Silver is Right – Democrats Are Lying To Themselves

 

It’s probably the case that every human being has experienced recurring nightmares and for some political observers this election is shaping up to be yet another disaster, for Democrats. One might think all Americans were aware that polling and election outcome predictions are not reliable, especially after the past two or three election cycles where Democrats were crushed in congressional and state-level races even after outrageous reporting that Republican governors, legislators and state representatives were destroyed by this or that Democrat leading up to voting day. This nightmare scenario is raising its ugly head and it appears that only Nate Silver is aware that Democrats are lying to themselves if they think Donald Trump can’t defeat Hillary Clinton.

Democrats know Nate Silver and yet it appears they have little regard for an “ominous warning” he recently issued:

There’s still a lot of denial among Democrats about how tight the race has become, despite evidence from high-quality polls.”

One of the big problems, and it is huge, is that although many voters claim they don’t support Trump and are highly-unlikely to vote for him in public, when queried anonymously, they do support the television celebrity and will be ticking a box with his name next to it in November. But, one might say, the polls show Hillary crushing Trump and pundits keep claiming the Republican Party is all but destroyed. However, according to experts like Thomas Edsall, some Trump voters are lying to the pollsters. In a prescient, but ignored op-ed a couple of months back, Mr. Edsall asked, “How Many People Support Trump but Don’t Want to Admit It?” The answer is probably a lot, and a lot means a Clinton win is not nearly as likely as Democrats want to believe.

There is something known amongst pollsters as “social desirability bias; the desire of respondents to avoid embarrassment.” Some voters refuse to tell a live interviewer that they support a candidate like Trump because he is offensive and outrageous. But like most establishment Republicans publicly rejecting Trump and claiming to support Hillary Clinton, once they’re in the privacy of the voting booth on November 8, they will, without hesitation, cast their secret ballot for every Republican up and down the ballot; including the Republican candidate for president.

According to real experts, in matchups between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Trump does much better in polls that are conducted online where a respondent, in the privacy of their computer screen, can tick a box next to Trump’s name sans embarrassment. In fact, it is a completely different story when they are faced with responding to a human being’s voice in person-to-person polls by landline and cellphone surveys.

To make the point clearer, Real Clear Politics aggregated 10 separate telephone polls giving Hillary Clinton a respectable nine point national advantage over Trump. However, the combined results of two online surveys conducted by YouGov and Morning Consult, Clinton’s lead fell to only four points. It’s why Nate Silver is right in saying Democrats are in denial if they think Donald Trump can’t win in November.

To re-emphasize the point, Nate Silver ran a national presidential poll about two weeks ago and to say the results are shocking is an understatement. In telephone calls where a live person asks a respondent to “disclose their preference to a living person,” Hillary Clinton polls at a very strong 86 percent. However, in Silver’s online and “robo” polls conducted over the Internet and in private, Clinton polls a whopping 15 percent lower, coming in at only 71 percent.

Where Democrats and liberal pundits alike have to start being honest is admitting that no matter how offensive and dangerous Donald Trump may be, and he certainly is both, he is the Republican Party standard bearer. That he is a racist, bigot, misogynist and inept at everything just endears him a bit more to the preponderance of ignorant Americans who will flock to the polls to vote for a celebrity they’ve watched on their televisions.

Americans are also memory challenged besides ignorant and all of the offensive and hateful remarks by Trump, even targeting Veterans and women, are already long-forgotten by many prospective voters. Remember, that even after shutting down the government six months before the 2014 midterms, Republicans who pundits claimed were finished easily won their races.

Democrats can never assume the voters are dependable according to their responses in polls and surveys, but they can, and damn well should assume that when they hit the voting booth in November the preponderance of racists, religious, and bigoted Republicans and their independent or first-time voting brethren will pull the lever or tick the box for the Republican. That his name is Donald Trump is of no consequence; he will have an “R” beside his name and he promised to protect their Christian heritage and make America great again. It is meaningless to informed Americans, but it cements the deal for conservatives.

 

This article was originally set for publication Sept. 15, 2016

A Real Democrat Would Not Criticize President Obama During A Primary Race

 

 

Anyone who is new to a group or an organization they have spent years assailing usually would lay low and refrain from attacking the group’s popular leader; at least if they expect to be embraced and regarded as someone who can contribute anything positive to the movement’s mission. One thing that most Americans comprehend, whether they are interested in and follow politics, or are members of a violent street gang, is that it is generally not a good idea to join up with an organization and then criticize its leader.

This screed has nothing to do with endorsing or criticizing any candidate for president; it is about being sick to death of hearing a “neophyte Democrat” parrot EmoProg criticism that President Barack Obama is a bad and ineffective leader. Although those were not Senator Bernie Sanders exact words, he did question the leadership skills of President Barack Obama and claimed that as a new Democrat he will close the “divide between government and Americans that President Obama opened wide throughout his presidency.”

It is curious that, like his EmoProg acolytes, Bernie Sanders is unaware that whatever “divide” he perceives exists between Americans and Congress is due to contrasting political ideology, racism, religious fundamentalism and Republicans; not President Barack Obama. President Obama is not a member of either chamber in Congress; he leads the Executive Branch of government. Besides, this latest claim that President Obama is divisive, or responsible for a gap between Americans and government, is a tired Republican accusation that does not carry any more weight coming from a Democrat than a Republican; even if it is a new Democrat.

The Vermont Senator said, “There’s a huge gap right now between Congress and the American people. What presidential leadership is about is closing that gap.” To be fair, he did acknowledge the President tried to bridge the divide, but he said Obama has failed and Bernie knows the reason why; “We need a political revolution bringing millions and millions of people into the political process in a way that does not exist right now.” So there it was; “blame the Black man” for not waving a magic wand and morphing Republicans in Congress, the Supreme Court, evangelical fanatics, and angry racists into Democrats; and for not bringing about political revolution.

This “political revolution” meme again; the one the Vermont senator confesses is necessary to fulfill the “free college and free healthcare” pledge he thinks Republicans in Congress and tens-of-millions of conservative voters will embrace with open arms. As John Lennon said regarding people who want a revolution; “We’d all love to see the plan.” And no, repeating that term “political revolution” ad nauseam is not a plan and  is not going to transform America’s conservative majority, or the Republican-dominated Congress, into a population that will embrace what Republicans will scream is “socialism and more free stuff.”

The divide Sanders believes President Obama failed to close between the American people and Congress is political, ideological and religious; something beyond the purview of a mere human being elected as President. Besides, it was millions of American people who put Republicans in charge of Congress with valuable assistance from the same EmoProg people who claim President Obama is a failure, a lousy progressive, and unable to “close the gap between the American people and Congress.”

A prescient question for the Sanders’ campaign is exactly how will the senator will “bridge the gap between the American people and Congress;” particularly when he has been ineffective in bridging the gap between Senate Republicans and Democrats, or Senate Democrats and himself. After all, in a quarter century or so in Congress a record of three bills signed into law does not speak favorably about any secret ability to  “close a gap” between ideological opposites; exactly the same situation that exists among the American people. The so-called “gap” between Congress and the voters is certainly not going to be bridged because Senator Sanders’ ideas are new or a revelation to the people; they are old ideas minority Democrats embrace and majority Republicans oppose vehemently.

President Obama has called for higher wages, money out of politics, wealth redistribution, and affordable college since before he was sworn into office. In fact, Joe the plumber became a right-wing celebrity because of an exchange between then-presidential candidate Obama and an “aspiring” plumbing contractor in 2008. The exchange was over candidate Obama’s pledge to address income inequality; specifically tax cuts and wealth redistribution. And, as a revelation to the senator’s “historically” ignorant EmoProg backers, Sanders’ opponent for the Democratic nomination crusaded for “universal healthcarein 1993 as First Lady. It is what began the nearly 24 year “vast right-wing conspiracy” against her and the same one many feeltheberns are aiding the Koch brothers and Karl Rove perpetuate today.

Perhaps it is naïveté, or ignorance, but Senator Sanders is not helping his case with Democrats who have been staunch supporters of President Obama. Senator Sanders’ criticism of the President in particular and Democrats in general is nothing new, but it is getting old and as damned irritating as EmoProgs and HamWalds attacking the President in 2009. If President Obama had been a catastrophic failure, one would understand a new Democrat attacking his policies, agenda, and missteps; but that has not been the case and up till now only Republicans, teabaggers, EmoProgs, racists, and religious fanatics don’t get it.

For most Democrats, President Obama has done a miraculous job in the face of the most extreme obstructionism and outright opposition likely ever in America’s history, and only Republicans, teabaggers, racists, religious fundamentalists and Sanders’ EmoProg movement disagree. Obama Democrats don’t like it when Republicans attack their President and it is curious that anyone would think it is acceptable when a Democrat does it; even if they are a new Democrat who seems to think they are running a campaign against Barack Obama.